GCC_350 Free_EN_$

Tink, F%$#!

Tink, F%$#!
It’s the first lesson I taught my wife when she joined me for a round on the frolf course. She’d never seen disc golf before so I figured I’d start easy. **TINK** “F%$#!!!” It’s the sound of a disc hitting the basket, but not staying in, and the subsequent reaction of the player. It only took about 5 minutes before we heard it happen the first time to a player in a group behind us. It’s been more than a year since I’ve been on the disc golf course, and it felt good to be back! The course in E-Vegas is amazing. All 18 holes have nice concrete tee pads and pictures of the hole at each tee. In fact, a number of the longer holes have alternate tee pads for women, amateurs and G-Rob. There’s a lot to like about the set-up of the course, too. There are mandatory openings through which you must throw the discs. There are lots of places where a bad throw could land you out of bounds or in the water. And the holes offer lots of opportunities for a variety of shots. It’s a longer course than Timmons Park back in Greenville, but it also doesn’t have as many Death Star trench-like shots either. On this day, I managed just one birdie (despite what the course suggests, regular frolfers consider all holes to be a Par 3). But I was happy with how I threw considering it had been so long since I was on a course. And I can’t wait to get back out and do it again! Plus, this gives the guys from G-Vegas just one more reason to visit. 1) Free place to stay. 2) Casino boat with poker room. 3) Disc golf course. 4) And for Bad Blood… some adult establishments.

The Luckbox Last Longer Challenge
Let’s start with the breaking news: PokerStars will be adding $2000 to the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge prize pool. Let me say that again. The awesome folks at PokerStars are once again showing their support for the WPBT by adding $2000 to the prize pool for the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge at the Winter Classic (and find it on Facebook). Let’s just say this little contest of pride and wills just grew into something awesome. Now let’s get to the details. With this much money now at stake, we’re putting down some rules. Read carefully! Teams of three must be formed before the tournament begins and submitted to The Luckbox. Team entries can be left in the comments of Up For Poker on THIS POST, sent to cusephenom -@- yahoo DOT com, or done in person in Las Vegas. The Luckbox will be at the tournament site at Noon, one hour prior to the scheduled start time of the tournament. Live registration ends at 12:45pm, 15 minutes prior to scheduled start time of the tournament. Sorry, no exceptions. Each team requires a $30 entry fee ($10 per person). If you are unable to find two teammates prior to the end of the Last Longer registration, you are ineligible to participate in the Last Longer competition. It is each team members’ responsibility to notify The Luckbox (or his representative) upon his/her elimination. If notification is not made at the time of bust out, the player will be assigned the same amount of points he or she would have earned for busting out first. At the end of the event, each players’ bust out number will be added together and the lowest total finishes first, 2nd lowest finishes second, etc. If two teams finish with the same total, the tie-breaker is the team with the top finishing player. From the added prize pool: $1,500 to winning team ($500 apiece) and then $500 for for second place team ($170 for top player on team, $165 for other two players). The added prize pool will be transferred into your PokerStars account. From the entry fee prize pool: 50% to the winning team, 30% to 2nd place and 20% to 3rd place. The entry fee prize pool will be handed out at the conclusion of the tournament. (Astin asked in the comments about people with no PokerStars account. First, it’s free and easy to sign up! Second, you can provide us with whatever Stars account you wish if you’re on the winning team. So if you want it deposited into someone else’s account, we can arrange that.) Any and all disputes will be handled by The Luckbox and thisisnotapril. All decisions are final. By paying an entry fee, you are agreeing to the rules set forth here. We want to make sure that the great people at PokerStars know how much we appreciate this so when you talk about the Luckbox Last Longer Challenge (we’re going to call it the L-cubed), please give PokerStars some love (your blog, twitter, facebook, etc.). If you have any questions about this, leave them in the comments or email me at the email address listed above!

Why Bill Belichick Was Wrong
I can’t believe there’s even a discussion about this. Everyone knows that Belichick was wrong. He made an arrogant decision that cost his team a victory. Yet rocket scientists and amateur poker players everywhere are breaking out their protractors to justify this game-losing decision. Well, I spent about 10 minutes doing my own research. I present: Other numbers. Over the last 6 weeks of the 2009 NFL football season, teams have attempted to go for it on 4th and 2 on 14 different occasions (including Belichick’s dumb decision). Any idea how many times those 14 attempts have been successful? I’ll give you a minute to guess. Yep, it’s zero. That’s right. A big 0%. Eight incomplete passes, two failed runs, two interceptions, one sack and Belichick’s pass that came up inches short. I wonder if Belichick knew how difficult it is to convert 4th and 2 when he made his bone-headed decision? Anyone who understands football understands the difficulty in converting 4th and 2. It’s a little too far to run meaning teams can play for the pass. In fact, Belichick made it even easier on the Colts by emptying the backfield eliminating any threat of a run at all. Of course, many argue that had New England punted that Manning (because he’s so super-awesome) would have lead a TD drive anyway. I wonder what the numbers say? Over the last 6 weeks of the season, Indianapolis has had 37 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they’ve converted TDs in 10 of them. That’s 27%. Over the last 6 weeks of the season, New England’s opponents have had 44 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they’ve convered TDs in 5 of them. That’s 11%. What about when New England and Indianapolis play each other? Here are some more numbers. In this year’s game, Indianapolis had 12 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they converted TDs in 3 of them. That’s 25%. Since 2006 against New England, Indianapolis had 29 drives starting from the 30 or behind and they converted TDs in 6 of them. That’s 21%. Of course, Indianapolis got the ball from the 40 yard line or closer twice against New England since 2006 and, predictably, both resulted in TDs, including the game-winner a week ago. So what do the numbers tell me? 4th and 2 conversion rate last 6 weeks: 0% Indianapolis’ TD rate from 70+ yards vs. NFL last 6 weeks: 27% New England’s opponents’ TD rate from 70+ yards last 6 weeks: 11% Indianapolis’ TD rate from 70+ yards vs. NE last week: 25% Indianapolis’ TD rate from 70+ yards vs. NE since 2006: 21% I don’t know about you… but those numbers certainly don’t support going for it on 4th and 2. Looks like NE had a chance somewhere between 75% and 85% of stopping Indianapolis on a long TD drive but very little chance of either converting the 4th down or stopping the Colts if they failed on the 4th down conversion. And that doesn’t even include the fact that the Colts would have been attempting this drive with just 1 timeout and just 2 minutes left in the game which likely lowers the Colts’ percentages. Of course, lots of people will say I’m cherry-picking. Guess what? That’s what statisticians do. They cherry-pick numbers to support their case. This was a bad decision by Belichick. It’s clear that the decision was last-second which only compounded the mistake. Had New England really intended to go for it on 4th down no matter what, there’s little chance they throw the ball on 3rd down. Not only would a run have been a surprise on 3rd (giving it a better chance of succeeding) it also would have forced the Colts to burn their final timeout and it would likely have gotten them closer for their 4th down attempt (which, given the spot, would have made all the difference). When New England failed on 3rd down, most of the offense was running off the field and New England was then forced to burn their last timeout which prevented them from challenging the spot on 4th down (although I’m not sure a challenge would have worked). If the plan was to go for it on 4th all along, wouldn’t the offense have known that? After all, they had already burned a timeout in that same drive! Not to mention, going for it in this situation brings all kinds of factors into play, including crowd noise and the potential of the home crowd to influence any close spot in favor of the Colts. Of course, context doesn’t matter to the people with their fancy equations. Context is irrelevant, right?

Tags: , ,